The 2013 Super Bowl XLVII early season prediction

I realize that we are not even 24 hours removed from the 2012 Super Bowl, but it’s never too early to take an early look at which teams might be playing in the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII next year in New Orleans. The 2012 NFL year has yet to start, free agency hasn’t happen and the NFL Draft has yet to be held, but I have two teams which I really like for Super Bowl XLVII, one team based on performance this season and one team based on a very defining trend.

Generally, there is around a 50% turnover rate in teams which qualify for the NFL playoffs each season. This year, the Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers returned to the playoffs after a long absence. The Houston Texans made their first, ever playoff appearance. The 2012 NFL season will likely be no different with the Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders and perhaps the Tennessee Titans all are possible to reach the playoffs with a few key additions, but I do have two teams which I think should be very early season favorites to reach Super Bowl XLVII.

From the AFC, I love the Houston Texans. I had them winning the AFC South in 2011, even if Peyton Manning had been healthy. The Texans might not be able to retain DE Mario Williams in the offseason, but even in his absence this season, Houston’s defense was a force to be reckoned with. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is returning, as is the very solid rushing attack of Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Even better news for the Texans, veteran QB Matt Schaub should be fully healthy for the start of the 2012 season, allowing WR Andre Johnson to be fully utilized.

The Texans schedule for 2012 sees the team squaring off against their typical divisional rivals with games against all of the teams from the AFC East and NFC North. The club’s two at-large games come against the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. The Houston Texans were on pace to secure the number one overall seed in the AFC playoffs this season until losing their starting quarterback to injury. I could envision, at this point and time, the Houston Texans posting a 12-4 overall record next season with the playoffs coming through Houston.

In the NFC, I like a couple different teams to reach the big dance, New Orleans and Green Bay leading the pack. The New York Giants just won the Super Bowl, I don’t like to pick repeat winners. The Saints could be eliminated based simply on the trend of 46 Super Bowls without the home team of the host city ever playing in the Super Bowl.

There is one trend however which cannot be ignored over the past six seasons in determining the NFC team playing in the Super Bowl. The NFC representative in each season since 2006 has played against the AFC East teams. This year, the teams of the NFC West will play against the AFC East.

In recent Super Bowls-

-2006 Chicago Bears (2-2 vs AFC East) Loss

-2007 New York Giants (3-1 vs AFC East) Won

-2008 Arizona Cardinals (2-2 vs. AFC East) Loss

-2009 New Orleans Saints (4-0 vs. AFC East) Win

-2010 Green Bay Packers (2-2 vs. AFC East) Win

-2011 New York Giants (4-0 vs. AFC East) Win

I like the San Francisco 49ers led by head coach Jim Harbaugh to take the next step and reach the Super Bowl in 2012 next season at this point. Just as the Houston Texans, the Niners will square off against the AFC East and the NFC North next season. San Francisco has at-large games against the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints.

Either team would be worthy of a wager. The Houston Texans are 15:1 for winning next year’s Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers are currently 20:1 to take home the trophy after Super Bowl XLVII.